New West Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
A recent poll shows that Larry Grant, Democratic candidate for Congress in Idaho’s 1st Congressional District, has favorable ratings equal to Republican Congressman Bill Sali, but that Sali’s unfavorable ratings are a standout.
Greg Smith and Associates, a Boise opinion research and consulting firm, conducted the poll using randomly selected and statistically representative Idahoans living in North, Central and Southwestern Idaho who are likely to participate in either the Democratic caucus or Republican primary in February and May, 2008, respectively. The poll interviewed 253 voters July 11-13 and has a margin of error of 5.7%.
Very favorable or somewhat favorable: Sali 29%, Grant 28%
Very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable: Sali 46%, Grant 13%
The poll shows that an additional 29% of those questioned know who Grant is, but have yet to form an opinion of him. Another 30% are unaware of him. Only 12% are unaware of Sali while another 13% have no opinion of him.
Long way from election day. What’s with the caucus? Ds don’t select their rep candidate in a caucus? Very small sample, very large margin of error. I assume everyone polled was in the first district? The geography while close doesn’t specify. After all Boise is in SW Idaho but not all of it is in the first district. What percentage were D and R? Were Ds allowed to rank Sali and vice versa?
Even if valid the results come as little surprise to the CW, that lots of people dislike Sali and not enough know Larry Grant. Greg Smith polls are becoming synonymous with meaningless. But its all we got.
“Greg Smith polls are becoming synonymous with meaningless….”
How so? Just because you don’t have answers to all your questions about his process doesn’t mean there aren’t good ones.
I don’t know that much about Smith’s polling reliability, but the ones I’ve heard of seem relevant, at least. Do you have a specific complaint?
The Congressional candidates are chosen in the May primary, not the February caucus, which is strictly for the presidential race.
Disclosure: I worked for the Grant campaign last year.
Yeah Tom, this one. Each of my questions goes to the heart of the reliability of this poll as I’m sure Greg will attest. What does “statistically representative Idahoans” mean? And how do you get that in three distinct regions? And did each of the regions include anyone in District 2? And what’s with the caucus?
I didn’t mean to pile on Greg per se, he is the only game in town. It is likely that the folks that commission these polls want them inexpensively and won’t pay for something more reliable having another agenda entirely. Well they get what they pay for. Don’t expect me to make much of it though. These type of polls (large margin, low sample) undermines Greg’s credibility.